I am not a handicapper, nor do I advocate playing for money on Sundays. On a recent trip to Vegas, however, I was tempted to lay a wager. The Dolphins are ten point dogs on the road at Seattle in week one. I'll tell you why I like them.
Week one is a perfect time to play a superior opponent. No one is up to speed on week one, which to some extent randomizes results. Since both teams are reluctant to expose themselves to injury in an extended preseason, week one games are often rough, untidy affairs. As a result, any team can win.
Last season, the 49ers beat Minnesota 20-3 in week one. Meanwhile, the Titans beat the Bucs 42-14. So if the Dolphins have to play Seattle on the road, why not in week one?
One last result to hold you over for a few weeks: The Rams also won their opener last year, and somehow scored 34 points- the Rams- 34 points! It might be worth mentioning the team they beat was the Seahawks...
Jay Lopez
Monday, August 22, 2016
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Naaaa. We look like shit so far.
Never ....ever...bet on sports. its fixed.
I'd like to see more before I make that bet however if they just have to beat the spread I think that is very possible. Seattle hasn't looked very good from what I've heard. Plus, our chances are better early in the season before anyone has seen how we play.
I get that David... I think the line will likely move in our favor a bit when the sharps get on this game. I wouldn't be surprised if we beat them outright on the road- only because they have no tendencies on us and we know who they are. They are a better team, but I like this spot.
Fins will win outright. You the man JD!
Solid Hoges!
They will know what we do on offense since since Gase has been in the league for a while. There are only so many routes off the tree.
It's all about matchups. Winning at the line of scrimmage, beating the coverages, etc. How well do you matchup with strengths and weaknesses.
So far our corners are not looking good. Our DL is not pressuring the QB. We are not running the ball well. Pouncey could be out too.
10 points is not an unrealistic spread for a road team with those issues against a good team coming off 3 playoff appearances including a Super Bowl win.
Can we catch them off guard. Possibly.
Those handicappers are pretty good at evening out the bets. That is why there are point spreads. They want alike monies bet on both teams so they can maximize their profit on the vig (amount paid for losing on top of your bet which is usually 10%).
In a perfect world half the money bet would be placed on each team and then the house would profit 5% of the total amount that was bet.
Spreads move based on monies bet as well. If one team is getting the vast majority of the monies bet placed on them, the house will move the line accordingly to encourage bets on the other team.
Starting at 10 points tells me the house doesn't expect much money to be wagered on Miami.
Solid response Carl... If Pouncey is missing, it could be a world of hurt for us (noise, unfamiliar exchange, inability to establish positive line of scrimmage) but 10 points is simply too many. And I disagree about knowing out schemes: never saw Cutler running spring roll outs and designed running plays. I can tell you that Pete Caroll teams often get overconfident and can be had early. We'll see- but as you say, Pouncey will be key.
Seattle has had a bad habit of starting the regular season slowly lately. Last year, they didn't even look like a playoff contender at the mid-season point. If we have to play them on the road, week one is actually our best shot at winning that game.
JJ- Welcome to the site! Exactly my thinking- first week a great time to have "that game", especially against an overconfident coaching staff/team. Nice piece on signing a backup center. Signing Satele was huge for us the last time Pouncey went down.