Let's start with the obvious: I love Jarvis Landry. He has been the best Dolphin on the generally disappointing teams we have watched since his debut. Last year, the team finally made the playoffs and Landry was the player I was happiest for: he deserved to be respected, to win, to shine.
And I think the Dolphins will now trade him. And I think that they have known that they would, and for a long time.
I am sorry to say it, but this explains the Leonte Caroo trade-up. This explains the enormous sum the team committed to Stills. And this explains how the team will eventually keep Jay Ajayi, sign a new linebacker, corner, and safety, and finally make the AFC Championship Game. OK- how did we get all the way to this imagined reality? Let's start, as Landry does, in the slot.
Slot receivers can't be the highest paid non-quarterbacks on your roster. The reason is that they are covered by the other team's worst defender, don't score touchdowns, and don't earn the "chunk" yardage that this generation of statisticians think win games. Slot receivers average 8-10 yards a catch at best, and that means that they average 5 yards an attempt. 5 yards an attempt gets you a new OC (think Bill Lazor.)
What wins in the NFL is generally the ability to take the lid off the defense. This forces deep linebacking and safety play, which opens up the NFL's dirty secret: running games still win football games. That is, get 7 men in the box, and you get 5 a carry. Get 5 a carry, and you win games. You don't get 7 in the box by having your best receiver playing in the box, where he draws congestion close to scrimmage.
One team wins in the slot: the Patriots. And that is an effective rebuttal. But few teams have a passer who can complete 80% of his passes to slot receivers. So- if you don't have Tom Brady, take the lid off. And if you are taking the lid off, you can't afford a premier slot man.
And if you can't afford a premier slot, you drag your feet re-upping a contract for your best player. You (over) draft a replacement. And you invest fearlessly in the surrounding cohort, knowing where your savings are coming.
The Dolphins will try to trade Landry out of conference. They will try to get a handsome package in return and reload with young players who are in their first contract or yet to be drafted.
We fans will be dismayed, upset, and possibly wrong. Good front offices tell fans what to think, not the other way around. One thing we won't be is surprised. We took care of that just now.
Jay Lopez
Monday, August 28, 2017
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8 comments
Hopefully (finally) Dolphins management will learn from NE. You do what's best for the team. Still, with an imbecilic owner like Ross I have my doubts. And Mike Tannenbaum's track record doesn't inspire confidence. Like Ireland he can't see the forest for the trees. Anyhow, Landry's a very good player but he is immature (excused as "will-to-win emotion"), something of a free-lancer, prone to great catches, ungreat drops, with average speed, inopportune personal fouls (which lost the Giants game several seasons back). As a slot receiver he is replaceable ultimately because the larger question is, how can they pay him? Sure, it would be great if he stays, but this team needs an infusion of talent on the OL, LBs, DL. In preseason Matt Berk's Wide 9 defense looks like a Xerox of Vance Joseph's Why 9? despite some new players. Injuries aside (and Tannehill's is probably catastrophic), the goal was to narrow, not widen, the gap to NE. They're back to Square Two. The last time I remember a smidgen of defense was odious Parcells' 3-4. (I won't even associate the word defense -- or offense -- with Sporano and Philbin, two utterly incompetent losers deserving of an owner like Ross)
I agree with faversham13! I'm not a Landry fan at all. And, IMO you're correct about the defense. The defense under Coyle and Joseph looked similar and both were ineffective (especially against the run). Now, Burke's defense looks the same... pathetic. Gase needs to find an old-school DC to fix that side of the ball!
Roland please explain how you are not at all a fan of Landry?? Just because he doesn't make a lot of td's he keeps drives alive and runs over people. The guy is a player.
You're NOT a fan of Landry and his pro bowl caliber... record setting, mean, nasty, brutal play making ability as a receiver, blocker and even special teams? That's pretty odd
By special teams I refer to when he was returning punts...he was always a threat to break one loose
Replace stills with Caroo or via draft... trade stills and keep Landry. I'd much rather have Landry... I'd love to keep them all I like steals too but Landry is way more dynamic
They are not going to trade Landry for two reasons:
1) He is too good and a meeting of the minds will prevail and get an extension done.
2) You need a trading partner. And if what you say about slot receivers is true, we probably wouldn't receive the value we would want in return.